Portugal’s government set to lose confidence vote, triggering general election

Portugal’s minority government is in danger of collapse as parliament prepares to vote on a confidence motion, with an overwhelming majority of opposition politicians saying they will choose to oust the centre-right administration.

Under the Portuguese constitution, the government’s defeat in a confidence vote triggers its collapse. That would bring Portugal’s third general election in three years at a time when Europe’s security and economy are under threat.

The government asked for the confidence vote, saying it is needed to “dispel uncertainty” about its own future amid a simmering political crisis that has focused on Social Democrat Prime Minister Luis Montenegro and distracted attention from government policy.

The controversy has revolved around potential conflicts of interest in the business dealings of Mr Montenegro’s family law firm.

Mr Montenegro, who has said he will stand for re-election if the government collapses, has denied any wrongdoing. He said he placed control of the firm in the hands of his wife and children when he became Social Democratic Party leader in 2022 and has not been involved in its running.

It recently emerged that the firm is receiving monthly payments from a company that has a major gambling concession granted by the government, among other sources of revenue.

Opposition parties have demanded more detailed explanations from Mr Montenegro, and the main opposition centre-left Socialist Party wants a parliamentary inquiry that would dog the government for months.

The government, made up of the Social Democratic Party and its smaller ally the Popular Party, has 80 seats in the 230-seat legislature. It has been in power for less than a year.

An election would pitch the European Union country of 10.6 million people into months of political uncertainty just as it is in the process of investing more than 22 billion euros (£18.5 billion) in EU development funds.

Portugal has also been caught up in a rising European tide of populism, with a radical-right party surging into third place in last year’s election.

Voter discontent with a return to the polls could play into the hands of the Chega (Enough) party, which has fed off frustration with mainstream parties.

The Social Democrats are hoping that economic growth estimated at 1.9% last year, compared with the EU’s 0.8% average, and a jobless rate of 6.4%, roughly the EU average, will keep their support firm.

The next general election in Portugal was scheduled for January 2028.