Deterrence is key issue as army chiefs meet in Paris to discuss Ukraine force

Top military officials from across Europe and beyond joined talks in Paris on Tuesday on the possible contours of an international security force for Ukraine – an idea that France and the UK are pushing to deter any future Russian aggression on its neighbour if Moscow and Kyiv agree to stop fighting.

Participants said they expected the closed-door discussions to be wide-ranging, providing a gauge of which nations might be ready to join a coalition for Ukraine but not, at this stage, committing them to providing specific numbers of troops, equipment or other assistance.

Senior officials from Ukraine and the United States opened separate talks in the Saudi city of Jeddah on Tuesday focused on halting the full-scale invasion that Russia launched in 2022.

There the US agreed to resume military aid and intelligence-sharing to Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron attended part of the Paris Defence and Strategy Forum of army chiefs of 34 countries and other military representatives, including some who were scheduled to dial in remotely from Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

Mr Macron said it was time to “move from concept to plan” to define credible security guarantees and insisted the French-British blueprint should come along with the Nato alliance and its capabilities, Mr Macron’s office said, without offering detailed specifics.

Slovenia’s army chief at the meeting, Lt Gen Robert Glavas, said his Nato and European Union country is willing to be part of the effort.

But he said he was hoping for a clearer picture of how a post-ceasefire international force for Ukraine might work, what its missions might be, which countries want be part of it, and whether it would have a mandate from the United Nations or another body.

“The question is, what next?” he said in an interview with The Associated Press. “Who will go there? As we know in Europe, many countries, especially small countries, don’t have a lot of troops.”

Western and Ukrainian officials said there is no definitive plan for military options yet. The AP spoke to Western and Ukrainian officials in Kyiv, as well as French officials in Paris and British officials in London. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to speak openly about sensitive matters.

The US, Nato’s most militarily powerful member, was not invited to the Paris talks because European nations wanted to show that they are able to shoulder a large part of the job of safeguarding Ukraine once a truce is in effect, a French military official said.

For Ukrainian officials, key questions are how such a coalition would react if Russia violates a future ceasefire, whether it would respond militarily to a large Russian offensive and how quickly.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has welcomed the proposal but expressed scepticism, telling The AP in an interview in February that foreign troops alone would not be a sufficient guarantee of security for his country, and that such a plan should be backed up by weapons from the US and Europe, and support for Kyiv to develop its own defence industry.

“Diplomats are discussing, military officials are discussing, but we still don’t have real proposals,” said a senior Ukrainian official. The talks “are not in the first stage, we did a lot in the first stage, but we still don’t have a real solid approach”.

As Mr Trump has appeared to oppose the idea of US security guarantees and other US officials said this will fall on Europe to enforce, the French-British plan looks to create a force equipped with enough military might to dissuade Russia from attacking Ukraine again.

“That is the crux of it,” said a Western official in Kyiv.

A French military official said the force could include heavy weaponry and weapons stockpiles that could be rushed within hours or days to aid in Ukraine’s defence.

The Western official in Kyiv, offering another idea on the table, said they could incorporate direct and immediate strikes on Russian assets in the event of a violation.

Details have emerged piecemeal in recent weeks as technical discussions have been ongoing between Western diplomatic and military officials in Ukraine and other European capitals.

Last month, some Western officials described a small Europe-dominated “reassurance force” of fewer than 30,000 troops, rather than an ambitious army of peacekeepers posted along the 600-mile (1,000km) front line.

But other officials have said the numbers were under discussion.

According to one version, troops would be posted away from the front line at key infrastructure sites such as nuclear power plants and backed by Western air and sea power.

The front line would largely be monitored remotely, with drones and other technology.

Air power, including US air power based outside Ukraine, perhaps in Poland or Romania, would be in reserve to deter breaches and reopen Ukrainian airspace to commercial flights.

Allied navies could also play a role in the Black Sea clearing mines and patrolling to keep international waters safe.

The idea is to “aggregate” the capabilities those countries are ready to provide in order to be able to offer security guarantees to make sure the peace deal is “robust and verifiable”, with the aim to get some US backstop, another French official said.

“To get signals on the US backstop, the ‘able and willing’ European countries must be able to aggregate their capabilities and demands,” he said.

Some Western officials cautioned that there will be several stages to a peace plan and a broader range of countries could join the coalition later on. The first step could be a one-month freeze, as proposed by Mr Zelensky and European leaders, as a confidence-building measure.

The Ukrainian officials said they were optimistic about the coalition of the willing, conceding they have few other options with Nato off the table.

“I fully believe it’s very possible,” said one senior Ukrainian official.

“Trump is comfortable with the idea, the idea is very positive for us, and if Europe wants to be a real player, they should do this.”

“If they lose this opportunity, we will be in a very difficult situation,” he added.

Elsewhere, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Tuesday his government intends to put 100,000 volunteers through military training yearly starting in 2027 as it seeks to build an army of reservists with worries about Russia growing.

He also said he told ministers that they and other government officials would undergo military training, and his decision had been accepted “with full understanding”.

Mr Tusk announced last week that Poland needs 500,000 soldiers, more than double the current number. It would include reservists in additional to the professional army and a territorial defence force.