Breast cancer cases and deaths set to rise dramatically by 2050, data suggests

The number of women in the UK diagnosed with breast cancer and dying from the disease is set to rise dramatically by 2050, data suggests.

New figures from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), which is part of the World Health Organisation, projects breast cancer cases will rise by 21% in the UK and deaths from breast cancer by 42% by 2050.

Around 23% of breast cancer cases in the UK are thought to be preventable, with around 8% of cases caused by obesity and 8% by drinking too much alcohol.

But getting older is the major risk factor for any type of cancer, largely caused by cell DNA damage accumulating over time.

IARC investigators looked at the latest and future data for female breast cancer in about 50 countries worldwide, comparing 2022 figures with 2050.

The figures show UK breast cancer cases are expected to rise from 58,756 cases per year in 2022 to 71,006 cases per year in 2050.

Similarly, UK breast cancer deaths will jump from 12,122 per year in 2022 to 17,261 per year in 2050.

They suggested the rises being seen across the globe are due to increasing populations.

Published in Nature Medicine, the study found that, on average, one in 20 women worldwide will be diagnosed with breast cancer in their lifetime and, by 2050, there will be 3.2 million new breast cancer cases and 1.1 million breast cancer-related deaths per year if current trends continue.

Overall, one in 70 women around the world will die from the disease.

IARC scientist Dr Joanne Kim, one of the authors of the report, said countries needed to work on preventing cancer as well as investing in early cancer detection and treatment.

She added: “Every minute, four women are diagnosed with breast cancer worldwide and one woman dies from the disease, and these statistics are worsening.”

Jon Shelton, Cancer Research UK’s head of cancer intelligence, said: “An ageing and growing population means that more and more people are expected to be diagnosed with breast cancer in the UK in the coming decades.

“However, what’s incredibly positive is that breast cancer survival has doubled since the 1970s and now, almost eight in 10 women diagnosed with the disease will survive for at least 10 years.

“Scientific breakthroughs have been key to this improvement and more research will help us detect breast cancer early and find new treatments to beat the disease.

“There are steps you can take to reduce your risk of breast cancer, such as not smoking, keeping a healthy weight and cutting down on alcohol. And if you notice anything that’s not normal for you, talk to your doctor.

“It probably won’t be cancer but if it is, spotting it early means that treatment is more likely to be successful.”