Police Scotland chief warns national insurance hike could risk officer numbers
Jo Farrell was speaking at a meeting of the Scottish Police Authority on Thursday.
The chief constable of Police Scotland has warned “maintaining a maximum” number of officers will only be possible if national insurance costs are met in full.
Jo Farrell told a Scottish Police Authority (SPA) board meeting on Thursday of budget pressures facing the force, including a requirement to “achieve £9 million of efficiencies” despite almost 90% of revenue spend going on the workforce.
Employer national insurance contributions are set to increase to 15% in April, with the Scottish Government warning on Monday that estimates indicate it will cost businesses £850 per employee on average and that it will impact the public sector.
Ms Farrell told the meeting: “There are very few levers to achieve further savings, other than reducing the workforce.”
She cited “pay award costs and further costs associated with the public inquiry into the death of Sheku Bayoh” as factors for a “challenging” 2025-26 budget, and said Police Scotland is saving £200 million per year compared to the eight previous regional forces.
Ms Farrell said the force is “reviewing our recruitment profile for the coming financial year” due to the national insurance hike. She said indications suggest 50% of the increased costs will be met by the Scottish Government, which will impact on recruitment, despite a commitment in December to “maintain a maximum officer establishment of 16,600”.
She added: “I was also clear that a key component of that position was the requirement that over £25 million of additional national insurance costs are fully funded – this continues to be the case.”
Police officer numbers dropped to a historic low in March 2024 with 16,356 full-time equivalent (FTE) officers, the lowest since September 2008 – however numbers have now risen to 16,600, Ms Farrell told the meeting.
She said 86% of revenue goes on pay, and added: “We are turning over every rock to achieve further efficiencies.”
SPA chief executive Lynn Brown told the meeting “reform has got to be rewarded”, but said not being given the full amount to support the national insurance increase shows “reform was not rewarded”.
The meeting also heard outsourcing toxicology is creating additional financial pressure, and that a “long-term sustainable model” is needed to deal with drug-driving.
Director of SPA forensic services Fiona Douglas said: “We have an improvement plan and have done for a few years now. I think the challenge for us is how to roll out this testing capacity, knowing the problem we have in Scotland in relation to drug-driving.
“We don’t make decisions on the work we do based on budgets, and I don’t think we should ever go down that route.”
