Skills shortage in Northern Ireland projected in coming years

Northern Ireland is expected to be short of more than 5,000 workers in the coming years.

A modelling resource has forecast a skills shortage of an estimated 5,400 individuals per annum across sectors.

The Northern Ireland Skills Barometer 2023-2033, developed by the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre, says demographic trends and the structure of the labour market indicate a skills undersupply across all qualification levels.

It has found that the workforce in Northern Ireland is projected to grow to around one million jobs by 2033 – an additional 79,000 jobs created over the decade.

The growth is to cover sectors including agri-tech, life and health sciences, advanced manufacturing, materials and engineering, fintech and financial services, software and cyber, screen industries, and low carbon and net zero.

It also found that raising labour force participation will be essential to ensure that businesses have access to a sufficient supply of labour to achieve growth objectives.

However, it found that demographic trends and the structure of the labour market suggest a potential overall skills undersupply across all qualification levels, with a shortage of 5,400 individuals per annum needed to fill vacancies under a high growth scenario over the next decade.

It urges that investing in skills remains a central pillar of economic policy.

Stormont Economy Minister Caoimhe Archibald said the number of young people coming up is not expected to be enough to fill the gaps.

“The report highlights the long-term challenge posed by our ageing population,” she said.

“The number of young people coming into the labour market isn’t enough to meet the increased demand for jobs.

“The shortfall is such that an undersupply of people is anticipated at all skill levels.

“Given that Brexit has limited our ability to recruit from the EU, it is all the more important to help people who face barriers to work or training into employment.

“The traditional answer is upskilling people who are out of work, and that remains important. But it is also vital to support people once they are in employment.

“My department is also looking at how it can better ensure that employers have the advice and support they need to attract and retain workers.”

Ms Archibald added: “The coming financial year will be difficult for my department so it will be critical to prioritise well and to ensure maximum impact in all that we do. The Skills Barometer will guide us through that process.”

Mark Magill, Senior Economist at Ulster University and author of the report, said it provides a “vital evidence base for policymakers, educators, and employers to shape Northern Ireland’s Skills Strategy and drive long-term sustainable economic growth”.

“The latest Skills Barometer underscores the labour market challenges Northern Ireland will face in the decade ahead and the pressing need for continued investment in skills,” he said.

“The research highlights the critical importance of closing skills gaps and aligning education and training with industry demand.

“Investing in STEM, digital skills, transversal skills, and lifelong learning will be essential to developing a workforce that is resilient, competitive, and prepared for the future.”

Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Suzanne Wylie welcomed the report.

“This report shines a spotlight on the fact that we have, and will continue to have, too few skilled people available to fill vacancies in our businesses across sectors in Northern Ireland,” she said.

“This will only worsen if we do not grasp this issue and make it a priority for NI.

“Demographics alone mean there will be a decline in the number of people in the workforce after 2030, so we cannot stand still.

“NI chamber members have been concerned about access to the right skilled people for a considerable time and would like to see a more demand-led approach, through a centralised Workforce Development Agency where business and the skills sector work together to develop people for and in our businesses, making the economy of the future much more sustainable.”