Latest UK population projections: Key numbers and trends

The overall population of the UK is projected to rise by 7.3% between mid-2022 and mid-2032, compared with an increase of 6.1% over the previous decade.

Here are the key numbers and trends from the latest projections:

The UK population is projected to reach 72.5 million by mid-2032, up 4.9 million from 67.6 million in mid-2022, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The jump of 4.9 million is projected to be driven almost entirely by net migration, with natural change – the difference between births and deaths – projected to be around zero.

Beyond 2032, the population is projected to continue to grow and pass 75 million in 2041.

“These projections are based on current and past trends,” ONS head of population and household projections James Robards said.

“They are not forecasts and don’t take into account what may or may not happen in the future.

“If trends in births, deaths and migration change, then so would our assumptions for use in future projections.”

The UK population is likely to pass 70 million in mid-2026, which is unchanged from previous projections.

The overall population of the UK is projected to rise by 7.3% between mid-2022 and mid-2032, compared with an increase of 6.1% over the previous 10 years.

England’s population is projected to grow more quickly than other UK nations in the decade to mid-2032, increasing by 7.8%, compared with 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland and 2.1% for Northern Ireland.

The ONS also provides a projection further into the future, covering the 25 years between mid-2022 and mid-2047, for which the total projected growth of the UK population is 8.9 million, a jump of 13.2%.

This is lower than the previous 25 years from 1997 to 2022, when the population is estimated to have risen by 9.3 million, or 15.9%.

Between mid-2022 and mid-2032, some 9.9 million people are projected to immigrate long term to the UK while nearly five million are projected to emigrate long term from the UK, resulting in an overall projection of net migration of 4.9 million.

Annual net migration is projected to fall from 728,000 in the year to mid-2024 to an average of 340,000 per year from mid-2028 onwards.

This assumption is based on the average annual net migration for the 10 years up to mid-2023 and “should not be viewed as a forecast, but as a scenario where long-term net migration averages out at a certain level”, the ONS said.

“Demographic behaviour is inherently uncertain, so it is not possible to predict future migration trends.”

The number of births and deaths from mid-2022 to mid-2032 is projected to be almost identical, with just under 6.8 million births and just over 6.8 million deaths.

Across this period, there are likely to be slightly more births than deaths per year up to 2029, but more deaths than births per year beyond 2029.

While births are projected to increase slightly in the decade up to mid-2032, deaths are projected to rise at a faster rate.

This is due to the relatively large number of people reaching older ages who were born during the “baby boom” following the Second World War.

Looking further into the future, from mid-2022 to mid-2047 it is projected that there will be 1.1 million more deaths than births.

The population will still grow by 8.9 million, with projected net migration from 2022 to 2047 totalling 10.0 million – in other words, net migration is projected to be the only source of population growth in the UK over the next 25 years.

In mid-2022, children accounted for an estimated 18.3% of the UK population while people of pension age made up 17.8%.

But by mid-2032, people of pension age are projected to account for a higher proportion of the population (18.8%) than children (16.0%).

This projection accounts for the planned increases in state pension age to 67 for both sexes.

The gap is projected to become even wider after another 10 years, to 20.6% for people of pension age and 15.2% for children by mid-2042.

The proportion of the population that are of working age is projected to rise from 63.9% in mid-2022 to 65.2% in mid-2032, before falling to 64.2% in mid-2042.

Meanwhile, by mid-2032 more than one in 10 (10.3%) of the UK population are projected to be aged 75 and over, compared with about one in 11 (9.1%) in mid-2022.

By mid-2042 the figure is projected to be nearly one in eight (12.3%).