What does a second Trump presidency mean for the UK?

Donald Trump is set to return to the White House after he declared that he had won a “magnificent victory” in the US election.

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was quick to congratulate the president-elect, alongside his Foreign Secretary David Lammy, and the Government will be keen to build bridges with the incoming administration.

However, the economy and the approach to the conflict in Ukraine could risk diplomatic headaches for the UK.

Here the PA news agency looks at what a second Trump presidency could mean for the UK:

President-elect Trump has vowed to impose tariffs on imports to the United States, a move that could have impact the economy across the globe.

Bronwen Maddox, director of the Chatham House foreign affairs think tank believes that tariffs would be “probably one of the first things that Britain will notice” under the Donald Trump presidency and they will be “not good” for the “economic growth that Keir Starmer is putting so much weight on”.

She told the PA news agency “We don’t know how quickly Trump will move on it, but I would think very quickly – it’s one of the things he’s promised his followers.”

She added: “We don’t quite know what the tariffs will be and on which goods.

“Goods on China going into the US will hit global growth and tariffs on other countries like Europe and the UK, they will affect our ability to sell things to the US.

“So it’s not good for exactly the kind of economic growth that Keir Starmer is putting so much weight on.”:

Similarly, Professor Jonathan Portes at Kings’ College London thinks that the implementation of tariffs could mean a “severe shock to the global economy, including the UK”.

He also said that the “US current fiscal trajectory is unsustainable over the medium term.

“While a major crisis is unlikely in the short-term, Trump’s tax cuts would certainly raise the risk of higher long-term interest rates -which would further damage both the UK economy and our fiscal position.”

There have been questions about the nature of Sir Keir and the president-elect’s future relationship as a result of former comments made by Mr Lammy, and the complaint filed about Labour activists during the campaign.

The Government will be keen to build bridges with the incoming administration after the Republican politician’s campaign filed a legal complaint about Labour activists supporting Kamala Harris.

Elsewhere, Mr Lammy has spent time seeking to form a close relationship with the Trump campaign, despite a history of outspoken criticism of his record – including calling him a “racist and KKK/neo-Nazi sympathiser” in 2017 and a “tyrant in a toupee” a year later.

Meanwhile Sir Keir Starmer was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Mr Trump on his victory and made reference to the special relationship which he said will “continue to prosper” following the result.

In a statement on Wednesday morning, the Prime Minister said: “As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise.

“From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”

Foreign Secretary Mr Lammy also sent good wishes.

“The UK has no greater friend than the US, with the special relationship being cherished on both sides of the Atlantic for more than 80 years,” he said on X.

However, there were not congratulations shared across the board.

Sadiq Khan, the Labour Mayor of London who had a long-running row with Mr Trump during his first term said that “many Londoners will be anxious” following the result.

“Many will be fearful about what it will mean for democracy and for women’s rights, or how the result impacts the situation in the Middle East or the fate of Ukraine,” he said.

“Others will be worried about the future of Nato or tackling the climate crisis.”

He added: “The lesson of today is that progress is not inevitable.”

There have been efforts to reach out and build relationships with Mr Trump and his team. 

The Prime Minister met with the now president-elect at Trump Tower while on a visit to New York in September.

Sir Keir said at the time that he wanted to meet because “I’m a great believer in personal relationships on the world stage”.

After the news broke about the legal complaint in relation to Labour, Sir Keir said that he was “very grateful” to Mr Trump for making the time to see him.

Asked whether the campaign issue could jeopardise the relationship, the PM said “no”.

He added: “I spent time in New York with President Trump, had dinner with him, and my purpose in doing that was to make sure that between the two of us we established a good relationship, which we did, and I was very grateful to him for making the time.”

Ms Maddox said she thinks Mr Trump will be “magnanimous” in victory with the UK, but said there could be a “fly in the ointment”.

She told PA: “Keir Starmer’s got his statement out very quickly using the phrase ‘special relationship’, talking about all the ways the UK wants to work with the US.

“He and (Foreign Secretary) David Lammy have put in quite a lot of time getting to know Republicans around Trump as well as Trump himself.

“But Trump does bear a grudge, so whether David Lammy’s past remarks … or the Labour activists going over, it is possible that that is a fly in the ointment.

“But my guess is that Trump will be magnanimous and receive with pleasure all these calls he gets from other heads of state.”

A potential split on support for Ukraine and Nato could be a diplomatic headache for the UK.

The president-elect has long complained about US tax dollars funding European security and has been highly critical about Nato members not spending enough.

The UK has continued to support Ukraine since the start of the conflict with Russia, and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday morning that “we rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States.”

Ms Maddox thinks that Mr Trump will “pressure for some kind of deal” over the war in Ukraine, but there is a question over whether “Trump gives Ukraine a guarantee of American security, either through Nato or directly”.

However, Professor Sam Greene, an expert in Russian politics at King’s College London thought that the conflict is “unlikely to be the most important thing on Trump’s agenda”.

“An abject American capitulation to Russia’s ambitions in Ukraine would, of course, be disastrous to American national security and its broader interests.”