Analysis: Dress rehearsal doesn't go to plan for West Brom
Albion haven’t won on the final day of the season since 2008, when a 2-0 victory at QPR handed them the Championship title.
History suggests they were always going to find it difficult against a vibrant Derby side who needed a win to seal sixth spot and who beat them 4-1 at The Hawthorns earlier this season.
In the second half particularly, it was obvious which team had already cemented their play-off spot and which team needed to.
But this defeat was nowhere near as one-sided as the previous meeting between the two sides, even if the scoreline suggests it almost was.
Derby’s second goal came from a lucky ricochet and their third from a dubious penalty.
There were positives to take from a first half where Albion created a number of chances. The Baggies really should have been in front at half-time.
But there’s no escaping how rampant the Rams were in a dominant second half, when Albion’s season-long vulnerability to pace was exposed once again.
Frank Lampard’s young and hungry team swarmed all over Jimmy Shan’s men, and their response to conceding an equaliser was borne out of sheer will.
Albion’s response to going behind, on the other hand, was nowhere near as impressive, and Shan was scathing afterwards.
The caretaker boss labelled the workrate in the last 15 minutes ‘unacceptable’ and admitted the Baggies were going to have to perform a ‘hell of a lot better’ if they were to beat Villa.
It was a punchy assessment, probably designed to get a reaction out of this squad who failed to match Derby’s intensity. Well now, they’re going to have to.
After four or five weeks of muddling through, trying to stay injury free while also building up what momentum they can, the long-awaited derby is now upon them.
It might have been Tony Pulis, had Albion built on Stefan Johansen’s equaliser in the second half, but instead it’s Villa.
For many fans, that is like being thrown out of the fire and into the frying pan.
And following this defeat, there is a concerning lack of confidence coming out of the Albion camp.
In theory, this match was the perfect dress rehearsal for the play-offs, and for 50 minutes the Baggies stood up to the test.
But it was all one-way traffic for the final 40 minutes, and even when Derby went 3-1 up, it was the hosts who looked more like scoring.
Shan rested Chris Brunt for the game, and tweaked his system to a 3-4-3 with the ball and a 5-4-1 without it.
At times, the front three did put Derby’s defence under pressure by pressing in packs.
But if this was Jacob Murphy’s chance to stake a claim for a spot in the play-offs, he missed the opportunity.
The Newcastle loanee is obviously talented, with bags of pace to boot. He was in the thick of the action while he was on the pitch, and cut a good ball back to Dwight Gayle.
But he wasted his own glorious chance when slipped in behind and was far too lightweight in possession.
The concerning thing is that swapping him for Matt Phillips – a substitute who has had a huge impact off the bench in recent weeks – made very little noise this time around.
Shan’s trump card fell flat, as Derby flooded forward with the sort of exciting pace Albion used to in the first half of the season.
On this form, Lampard’s men may well be favourites to beat an out-of-sorts Leeds side, and Villa will probably be the bookies favourites to beat Albion too.
Having previously been so clinical away from home, the Baggies now travel to Villa Park with just one point from their last four on the road.
Taking a lead back to The Hawthorns will be difficult, and Hal Robson-Kanu’s moment of stupidity in injury time won’t help matters.
Even if he is only back up to Gayle and Rodriguez, he has proven himself useful at various times this season, including at Villa Park.
However, there’s a case now that – even if the red card is rescinded – he shouldn’t be in the squad following such a petulant moment of idiocy.
It was harsh, but why give the referee an opportunity to brandish the red? Particularly after Shan had taken Bartley and Johansen off to avoid that very scenario.
Albion have been much more pragmatic under the caretaker, but the defending in this game left a lot to be desired.
It may not have emanated from their own silly passing errors but basic skills like tackling and heading and timing seemed to evade pretty much all of the back five.
Rekeem Harper and Johansen are obviously Shan’s preferred picks in midfield for the play-offs alongside the returning Brunt, and both played with a reassuring discipline in the first half.
But they were overrun in the second half, chasing white shadows who lolloped past them.
They weren't helped by the system, which left them outnumbered in midfield, but that remains an area of concern, and Albion will need a third man in the engine room against Villa or they will be in trouble.
But for all the warning signs, perhaps being the underdogs will suit this club, who played that card so well in the Premier League.
Sitting back and soaking up pressure before getting the ball up to their forward stars quickly could prove lucrative.
Anyway, as nerve-jangling and tense as these next two games might be, they are also fascinatingly mouthwatering.
The drama of back-to-back derbies with so much at stake after two seasons that have ebbed and flowed in the way Albion and Villa’s have is a tantalising prospect.
It’s exactly why we watch football, because it throws up scenarios like this.
It feels like Albion have been preparing for this eventuality for weeks, and in the previous four games, it looked like Shan had settled on a winning formula.
But the final dress rehearsal before opening night didn't go to plan, and the question is, how much has that put the Baggies on the back foot.
Villa also lost on Sunday, but Dean Smith insisted his side still had momentum from their 12-game unbeaten run. Shan's message, on the other hand, was a whole lot sterner.
Time to see what this Baggies side is made of, because if they can’t get up for the next two games, they don't deserve to be promoted.