Comment: Failure to win promotion would leave West Brom facing a summer rebuild
Before the Sheffield United game, Albion were one point off the top two and building up a head of steam.
But damaging back-to-back defeats at the hands of their rivals has brought into sharp focus the realities of failing to win promotion.
Seven points is a lot to make up. At the current rate the top two are going, the Baggies will need to win at least nine of their remaining 11 games to give themselves a chance.
If promotion isn’t achieved, one glance at the squad proves Albion are facing a huge rebuild in the summer.
Not only do they have six loanees, but it’s likely another seven players could be eyed up by Premier League clubs, while others are nearing the end of their contracts.
It’s not absurd to predict top-tier interest in Jay Rodriguez, Jake Livermore, Craig Dawson, Ahmed Hegazi, Matt Phillips, Rekeem Harper, and Kieran Gibbs.
Livermore signed a new contract in December, so is the most likely to stay, but there is uncertainty hanging over the other six.
Loanees can always make their stays permanent of course, but that is no given.
Dwight Gayle has admitted staying beyond this season has ‘crossed his mind’, and he’s taken to the club admirably, but he’s also understandably determined to prove himself in the Premier League.
He will feel, quite rightly, that he has already done that in the Championship.
Albion will be unable to afford Tosin Adarabioyo’s £54,000-a-week salary Manchester City pay him, and Everton claim to have no intentions of selling Mason Holgate.
Stefan Johansen was keen to join Albion permanently in January, but Fulham look doomed to relegation, and considering how well he performed for them in the Championship, the Cottagers may want to keep him.
We have seen too little of Jefferson Montero and Jacob Murphy so far to know whether either will be wanted in summer.
On top of that, Gareth Barry is 38 and can’t keep going forever, while Harper’s contract is up at the end of the season and he is yet to sign a new one.
James Morrison, Chris Brunt, Wes Hoolahan and Tyrone Mears are all out of contract too.
That’s 17 players whose future at the club is currently under question, although Morrison and Brunt are likely to stay on.
Albion’s transfer strategy this season has been sensible.
Loans do not tie the club down to crippling long-term contracts that become a burden as parachute payments dwindle.
They have enabled Albion to bring in a higher calibre of player without gambling the house on promotion like others.
But what that strategy does, is leave a lot of work to be done when the loanees return to their parent clubs.
If Albion fail to win promotion, this summer will be a busy one for technical director Luke Dowling.
He delivered in his first transfer window. Even though Holgate was a player Darren Moore had tracked since summer, the deadline day business was widely heralded as a success.
Johansen and Murphy have proven Championship pedigree, while the enigmatic Montero could add some much-needed unpredictability.
But Dowling will have to earn his corn in summer, because there is no guarantee the club will be able to keep this squad together.
The back-up Albion have is their flourishing academy.
Sam Field and Harper – should he stay – are already being trusted in the Championship and there are others coming through behind them.
Fans may see more of Rayhaan Tulloch, Kyle Edwards, Jonathan Leko, Jack Fitzwater, and Morgan Rogers next season.
Moore’s future may be under scrutiny if Albion don’t go up, but there is arguably no-one better than him to help assimilate these players into the first team.
Chief executive Mark Jenkins is flying to China next week to provide a progress update to owner Guochuan Lai.
The primary reason is to discuss the commercial differences between a second season in the Championship and promotion to the Premier League.
Lai has, so far, not invested any more money after his initial £200million takeover in 2016, except for the £6m he spent on doomed vanity project Zhang Yuning.
Whether an extended stay in the second tier prompts him to dip his hand into his pocket remains to be seen.
Parachute payments dwindle from £41.5m to £34m next season, but Albion can be expected to make up that £7.5m shortfall and more in summer player sales.
So it’s certainly not all doom and gloom. The Baggies will still have one of the highest budgets for this division next season and should still be competitive at the right end of the table.
But there’s no denying they are facing a huge rebuild in the summer if promotion isn’t achieved.
