West Brom's relegation battle: How to pull off Great Escape II
“All our support and energy will be focused on doing all we can to help Alan Pardew and the players pull off another ‘Great Escape’.”
Those were the words of returning chief executive Mark Jenkins in Saturday’s programme notes.
Even though it was an FA Cup game, the perilous position in the Premier League loomed large.
Albion actually have two more points at this stage of the season than they did 2004/05, but they are much further behind the pack now than they were 13 years ago.
The Baggies stayed up on 34 points back then, but it looks like it’s going to take 38 points this season.
Jenkins was at the club during the first Great Escape under Bryan Robson, when Albion lost just three of their last 11 fixtures, and it looks like they’re going to have to do something similar this season.
Here, Matt Wilson runs the numbers from 2004-05 and this season to plot a course to safety...
11 games to go
04/05 – Birmingham (h) 2-0 win, 21pts
17/18 – Huddersfield (h) Win, 23pts
Thirteen years ago Neil Clement and Kevin Campbell gave Albion a comfortable home win that moved them off the bottom of the table.
The Baggies can’t do that this weekend, but they have to beat Huddersfield to stay even remotely in touch with those above them.
10 games to go
04/05 – Chelsea (a) 1-0 defeat, 21pts
17/18 – Watford (a) Score draw, 24pts
Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea won the title at a canter in 04/05 but a respectable defeat kept hopes alive.
This year, Albion can’t afford to come away from London empty-handed.
9 games to go
04/05 – Charlton (a) 4-1 win, 24pts
17/18 – Leicester (h) Win, 27pts
This Rob Earnshaw hat-trick epitomises the Great Escape for many people because Charlton were flying up in seventh at the time and this gave them belief.
Leicester are in a similar position to Charlton this season and Albion will need a similarly galvanising result.
8 games to go
04/05 – Everton (h) 1-0 win, 27pts
17/18 – Bournemouth (a) Defeat, 27pts
Oh to have Zoltan Gera again. The Hungarian won this crucial game over the Toffees to leave Albion in the bottom three on goal difference alone after three wins from four.
Pardew's men will probably have a set back at some point during this inviting run of six games, and this could be it.
7 games to go
04/05 – Aston Villa (a) 1-1 draw, 28pts
17/18 – Burnley (h) Draw, 28pts
Paul Robinson’s memorable equaliser deep in injury time at Villa Park meant it was a memorable derby day for the Albion, who lifted themselves out of the bottom three. This season they need the same result against a different top half claret and blue side.
6 games to go
04/05 – Spurs (a) 1-1 draw, 29pts
17/18 – Swansea (h) Win, 31pts
Gera’s poaching instincts stretched Albion’s unbeaten run to four games under Robson, but this season the Baggies will have to win more games than they draw, and home games like this have to be converted into three points.
5 games to go
04/05 – Middlesbrough (a) 4-0 defeat, 29pts
17/18 – Manchester United (a) Defeat, 31pts
This weekend was a setback 13 years ago and even though Albion have had joy at Old Trafford in recent years, it’s likely to be a set-back this season too.
4 games to go
04/05 – Blackburn Rovers (h) 1-1 draw, 30pts
17/18 – Liverpool (h) Defeat, 31pts
Albion threw away a chance to move clear of the danger zone at this stage in 04/05 after Kieran Richardson gave them the lead against Blackburn. But Liverpool will want revenge this season for failing to beat the Baggies in two games at Anfield and they could blow them away here.
3 games to go
04/05 – Arsenal (h) 2-0 defeat, 30pts
17/18 – Newcastle (a) Win, 34pts
It’s the business end of the season now and Albion will have to do something they haven’t managed since August, win away in the Premier League. Hopefully this is still a six-pointer at this stage and the Baggies aren’t dead and buried.
2 games to go
04/05 – Manchester United (a) 1-1 draw, 31pts
17/18 – Tottenham Hotspur (h) Draw, 35pts
Earnshaw’s penalty earned Albion a crucial point at Old Trafford 13 years ago, and the Baggies will need to snatch a similarly unlikely point from Spurs in the penultimate game of the season. But they’ve done that before in recent years...
Final day
04/05 – Portsmouth (h) 2-0 win, 34pts
17/18 –Crystal Palace (a) Win, 38pts
Just like that remarkable day when the Baggies started bottom and finished 17th, Albion will more than likely have to win on the final day of the season to give them any hope, this time overcoming Roy Hodgson’s Palace. And just like 13 years ago, they’ll probably have to pray other results go their way.
