Analysis: Big wake-up call as Aston Villa sleepwalking into trouble

A January transfer window Steven Gerrard described as “extremely strong” had bolstered hopes of a charge into the top half of the Premier League table during the second half of the season.

Instead, after a haul of just one point from three matches against teams below them in the standings, Villa’s primary aim is to ensure they do not get sucked into trouble at the bottom.

Unlikely though that scenario might appear, considering the nine-point cushion currently separating them from the drop zone, it would only require Burnley – who Villa still have to play twice – to win one of their two matches in hand for the gap to become that little less comfortable.

Besides, with Villa having just failed to score against two of the division’s leakiest defences in Newcastle and Watford and having lost on Saturday to a Hornets team winless in their previous 12 matches, it is hard to be too confident about them beating anyone just now.

For all the big talk off the field, following the high-profile arrivals of Lucas Digne and Philippe Coutinho, they remain a team producing decidedly mediocre results on it. Only Brentford, Norwich and Watford have lost more times in the league this season.

Gerrard certainly seems aware of the danger, stressing the need for his players to “wake up” during post-match briefings. The problem is he made the same plea only 24 hours previously, yet it did not appear to have been heeded.

To beat a Watford team content to sit in and spoil the game, Villa merely required patience and a little quality in the final third. They had neither, losing heart when the early breakthrough failed to arrive and then eventually their composure during an increasingly ragged second half. The Hornets bided their time and when the opportunity arrived, they snatched it, Emmanuel Dennis heading home their first goal in five matches with 12 minutes to go. Villa had no answer and had it not been for the reflexes of goalkeeper Emi Martinez might even have lost by more.

Gerrard and his players left the field to loud boos, leaving no doubt the head coach’s honeymoon period is well and truly over. Now more than three months on from replacing Dean Smith, the 41-year-old must surely be aware of how tough managing in the Premier League is.

That is not to say he did not face big challenges at Rangers, where there was pressure to win every week. Yet at Ibrox, Gerrard was in charge of one of the best two teams in the competition, whereas now he heads up a unit which is currently proving itself as, at best, middle of the pack.

After four wins from his first six matches in charge, it is now just one in the last eight and there is a sense, after back-to-back defeats to teams in the bottom four, the system which worked so well in the early weeks has been sussed out.

On Saturday there was the added issue of Gerrard’s in-game changes perhaps making the performance worse.

Certainly, attempts to force the issue by moving to a more attacking set-up early in the second half only appeared to add confusion to a home team who, bar two counter attacks, had at least been in control of proceedings.

The removals of Matty Cash and Emi Buendia from the action were also puzzling. Granted, Cash was on a yellow card and perhaps vulnerable to being sent-off, on a day when referee Rob Jones’ performance might best be described as erratic. Yet his replacement, Ashley Young, struggled at right-back and was the man bested by Dennis when the forward met Ismaila Sarr’s cross to head the only goal.

Buendia, like Cash, was not enjoying his best performance of the season. But he still looked the most likely man to unlock the visiting defence.

Fellow playmaker Coutinho lasted the whole 90 minutes despite being largely anonymous for much of the second half.

At least Gerrard is guaranteed time to sort out the creases. By contrast there are several players who, should performances not quickly improve, will find their positions increasingly vulnerable.

If there was a moment which summed up Villa’s day it arrived in stoppage time. Jacob Ramsey picked up the ball in midfield, looked up and picked out the run of Leon Bailey with one of the best passes of the day. The Jamaica international looked set to go through on goal yet, inexplicably, allowed the ball to pass under his feet and out for a goal kick.

In many ways it feels wrong to pick out Bailey, who has been so frustrated by injury. But a player signed at a cost of £25million is reasonably expected to do better in such a key situation. Right now Villa have several players whose performances are failing to match their reputations. The forward duo of Danny Ings and Ollie Watkins certainly fall into that category, having combined for just nine goals all season. Midfielder Morgan Sanson can’t even get on the pitch. The club’s oft-praised recruitment department is deserving of as much scrutiny as the head coach and players while inconsistent results persist.

The overall sense is a squad now assembled at considerable cost and which has shown, in glimpses, its potential should be capable of much better. That is certainly the opinion of the players, the head coach and the club’s hierarchy, who at the start of the season set Smith the target of a top-eight finish.

And yet in the past calendar year, Villa have lost 19 out of 39 Premier League matches.

Until they start proving otherwise, they will remain a bottom-half unit.