Brighton v Aston Villa - Match preview

Part of Villa’s success this term has been an ability to take care of business against teams in the lower part of the Premier League table, in matches where they are expected to win.

Last month’s defeat at Burnley was only the second time they have been beaten by an opponent in the bottom eight. The first was November’s 2-1 home loss to Brighton, on an afternoon where nothing quite went right for Dean Smith’s men, who were denied the chance to snatch a point by referee Michael Oliver overturning his initial decision to award them a stoppage-time penalty, after consulting the pitchside monitor.

Brighton’s victory was one of only two claimed by the Seagulls in their first 18 Premier League matches. Graham Potter’s men have subsequently won three of their last five, including shock triumphs over Tottenham and Liverpool, to open up a 10-point gap between themselves and the bottom three. They host Villa as the division’s most in-form team, bar leaders Manchester City.

Even so, this is the kind of fixture a Villa team with increasingly serious aspirations of finishing in the top six must be looking to win.

While praising his players for their performance in last weekend’s 1-0 win over Arsenal, Smith also pointed out the need for more consistency, after a hectic run of six matches in nine days which saw Villa bounce back from midweek defeats by winning at the weekends.

A haul of nine points from the busiest period of their season to date was enough to maintain control of their own destiny but a sustained run of results is now required if they are to keep pace with the rest of the contenders. Villa have not won back-to-back matches since following up their derby win at Albion by beating Crystal Palace on Boxing Day.

After Brighton comes matches against two other teams eyeing a high-placed finish in Leicester and Leeds, before Wolves, Newcastle and Sheffield United complete the fixture list prior to next month’s international break.

So busy has Villa’s recent schedule been, the week’s gap following the win over Arsenal may have felt significantly longer for players, who were granted an extra day away from the training ground after edging past the Gunners.

“It will give us a boost because we have been playing so many games with pretty much the same starting XI,” said goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez.

“Players have been tired but now we get a couple of days off, can recharge and get ready to go again.”

Limited preparation was seen as a factor in November’s defeat to Brighton, with many of Villa’s starting XI having only returned from international duty a day prior to the match. This time there can be no such excuses. Indeed, it is the Seagulls who face a quick turnaround following Wednesday night’s FA Cup fifth-round defeat at Leicester.

Smith’s main selection headache is in midfield, where he must decide whether to hand Douglas Luiz an instant recall or keep faith with Marvelous Nakamba, following the latter’s impressive outing against Arsenal.

Villa have not conceded a goal in any of the three matches the Zimbabwe international has started, with his ability to break up play and provide an extra layer of protection to the back four of particular appeal to the head coach. Yet Smith will expect his team, who ceded nearly two-thirds of possession against Arsenal, to see more of the ball at the Amex Stadium. That means Luiz, generally more comfortable and dynamic in possession, is most likely to get the nod.

Otherwise the team should be the same as that which started against Arsenal. Kortney Hause is Villa’s only long-term injury absentee, with the defender still not due back from a foot injury for several weeks.

Supporters who take a keen interest in trends may take heart in the fact Villa have recently performed rather well when playing on Saturdays. Smith’s team have won their last five without conceding a goal.

The one large caveat to that statistic is their only defeat in a Saturday fixture this season was the November loss to Brighton.