Matt Maher: Wolves and Villa are yet to show their true colours
When will the real Villa or Wolves eventually reveal themselves?
Now a quarter into the season and for differing reasons it is difficult to get a firm handle on the region’s two Premier League clubs or make confident predictions about their long-term prospects.
Of the two head coaches, Bruno Lage should currently be the happier, if only because his team are higher in the table. Had Wolves held on for victory at Leeds last weekend they would be sitting in fifth position.
And yet their progress under Lage has been perplexing, inverting the long-held theory performances will in the majority of cases determine results.
For the first month of the campaign the former were very encouraging. Wolves impressed for long spells in their opening Premier League matches against Leicester, Tottenham and Manchester United only to emerge pointless from each.
Since then they have taken 13 from the next six but other than a 2-0 win at Watford which ranks as the most complete outing of Lage’s reign so far their displays have been considerably less convincing.
Wolves lack fluency, are creating far fewer chances than during the opening month, while there is a suspicion their relative success has been aided by a softening fixture list rather than anything else.
It all adds up to the rather bizarre situation where supporters have more concerns about the head coach’s approach after a run of three wins in four matches than they did after three consecutive defeats. Wolves can’t continue to defy football logic forever and without improvement they will get found out sooner rather than later.
Still, always easier to iron out the creases while on a good run of form and it is not as though Lage can’t point to some healthy mitigation.
Any new head coach requires time to implement his philosophy and Lage’s efforts were probably not helped by an ineffective transfer window in which Wolves failed to address shortages in defence and midfield. In that regard, Lage’s decision to stick relatively closely to the set-up used by predecessor Nuno Espirito Santo may be more through necessity than any long-term design. The infancy of his tenure means it is far too early to make any firm judgements, albeit there is an immediate issue in sorting out the balance of his team.
Striking the right balance is also the biggest headache facing Dean Smith at Villa. After a run of three straight defeats since last month’s the win at Manchester United, Sunday’s visit of in-form West Ham feels an important early season fixture.
Smith, at first glance, had far more reasons to be happier with his club’s summer business. Villa might have sold Jack Grealish to Manchester City for £100million but they recruited strongly with the additions of Emi Buendia, Danny Ings and Leon Bailey.
Smith was also keen to strengthen in midfield with Villa seeing two bids rejected for Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse. Ultimately, the failure to move other players in that position out, plus the desire to give January addition Morgan Sanson a fair crack, meant there were no midfield additions but it is arguably now the area causing Villa’s head coach the biggest headache.
The problem with playing just two players in central midfield was exposed in last week’s 3-1 defeat at Arsenal when John McGinn and Douglas Luiz were overpowered by Thomas Partey and Albert Lokonga. Villa’s best performances this season have tended to be when Jacob Ramsey is added to the mix but the question then becomes how to fit Ings, Bailey and Buendia into the same team?
Disruption caused by injuries and international call-ups mean Smith, similarly to Lage, could legitimately argue he has not yet been able to field his preferred line-up. But now everyone is fit, he will quickly need to demonstrate he knows precisely what that XI looks like and how best to utilise his squad.
Villa have come an awfully long way since Smith took the reins and it would require a serious downturn in results for his position to come under any scrutiny.
By the same token, the club’s progress over the past three years has raised expectations and the ambition, which Smith has never sought to downplay, is considerable. While the club’s hierarchy are thought to accept qualifying for Europe this season won’t be easy, a top-10 finish is considered achievable.
Villa currently find themselves in the bottom half of the table seven points behind Sunday’s opponents, one of the teams they began the season aiming to overtake.
The campaign might still be young but for Lage and Smith some reassuring consistency would not go amiss.