Analysis of Villa 3 Crystal Palace 1

For one manager it looked like the closing chapter of a tragic tale and for the other it was the latest episode of what is turning into an exciting epic.

While Neil Warnock's future at crisis club Crystal Palace looks bleak after the manager refused to deny speculation linking him with QPR, Martin O'Neill's outlook at Villa grows rosier by the game.

Last night the claret and blue chief took his team within one step of a second Wembley final this season with a deserved victory over their administration-saddled opponents – even if they made hard work of it.

Having led through Gabby Agbonlahor's 14th goal of the season and created a host of opportunities to add to their advantage, Villa were made to pay for their profligacy in the fifth-round replay when Darren Ambrose slotted home from the spot.

Extra-time would have been the last thing O'Neill wanted with Sunday's Carling Cup final just four days away but thankfully John Carew, a fringe figure of late, stepped from the shadows with two penalties of his own.

Much to the disappointment of fans in these parts, there will be no chance to renew rivalries with Albion for a place at Wembley in the last four after they lost out to Reading and failed to keep their half of the bargain.

Yet while a less romantic tie it is an even more winnable one – and what a chance now for Villa to reach the semi-finals of a competition which lost yet another of its favourites, Manchester City, last night.

Villa are now deservedly joint-second favourites along with Tottenham to win the trophy. Only Chelsea are fancied more.

But, before their trip to the Madejski Stadium, they have the small matter of this Sunday's trip to Wembley.

United will hardly be quaking in their boots on this performance – certainly Villa, Agbonlahor especially, will have to sharpen up on their finishing if they're to conquer the champions. But once again this performance proved O'Neill's team, still unbeaten in 2010, have developed an uncanny knack of getting the job done.

The Villa boss rightly praised his players for their wholehearted attitude in tackling Palace – injury was always going to be a risk, especially against such a physical side – but not once did they shirk a tackle.

By no means is a United win a certainty and Villa should thrive on their underdog tag. The Villa boss also managed to give a handful of his first-choice players a rest for Sunday after making four changes to the side which thrashed Burnley as Brad Guzan, Fabian Delph, Luke Young and Carew were all drafted in.

But, unlike on Sunday, Villa began purposefully and immediately put the Palace goal under pressure.

They should have gone ahead in the 16th minute when Carlos Cuellar dispossessed Alan Lee midway inside the Palace half and picked out Agbonlahor, who spun Lawrence expertly to go clean through only to shoot far too close to Julian Speroni in the Eagles goal.

Another golden chance went begging when Stephen Warnock burst through and was left with the simple job of picking out the unmarked Carew at the back stick only to overhit his centre woefully.

Even when Speroni was beaten, the footballing gods were with him when Ashley Young's shot took a wicked deflection off Matt Lawrence and looped agonisingly wide of the right post.

For all Villa's dominance, it was the visiting fans making the noise as the claret and blue faithful, just like on Sunday, appeared to have one eye on Sunday's big showdown.

But they were soon spurred into song when three minutes before half-time Agbonlahor got in front of Shaun Derry to glance Ashley Young's corner inside the far post. Long overdue? Most certainly.

And, not for the first time in this battle, controversial too.

Replays confirmed the ball had touched James Milner rather than Nick Carle last, but O'Neill afterwards insisted his side should have had a free-kick for a challenge by the Palace midfielder anyway.

Still, it was nothing more than Villa deserved for their first half of attacking intent. Yet profligacy continued to undermine their supremacy.

On 64 minutes Milner's fine raking ball over the top sent Agbonlahor clean through but once again the Villa forward's finish was disappointing, firing tamely at Speroni.

While the score remained 1-0 there was always a danger of Palace sneaking back into it and Villa's worst fears almost became a reality when ex-Birmingham midfielder Neil Danns lashed a shot just past the post from a narrow angle.

It was a fortunate escape for Villa but their luck ran out soon afterwards.

Warnock has been a beacon of reliability for the claret and blues this season, but his challenge from behind on former Villa trainee Alan Lee was clumsy and mistimed. Referee Martin Atkinson was left with no option but to point to the spot and Darren Ambrose duly obliged with a penalty, so good that even spot-kick stopper supreme Brad Guzan couldn't keep it out.

Suddenly, Villa Park woke up; it was time to play their part and they duly obliged.

The tension mounted as Richard Dunne failed to find the target with the sort of set-piece opportunity the defender so normally thrives on.

Was it going to have to be extra-time after all? Surely not.

John Carew's love affair with the claret and blue faithful might have been on the wane of late, with the Norway star an increasingly peripheral figure, but all that changed in the space of eight minutes.

With nine to go on the clock the ex-Roma and Lyon man was hauled down by Matt Lawrence inside the box, dusting himself down to smash home the resulting spot-kick.

The challenge by Lawrence was clumsy but it was nothing compared to the inexplicable lunge on Carew after 89 minutes, as the striker headed away from the Palace goal.

Once again the outcome was the same and Villa were home and dry. More of the same on Sunday please.

By Brendan McLoughlin