Star comment: All eyes on North Shropshire as Tories fear by-election shock
Even as the votes are being cast today, the North Shropshire by-election has delivered a political shock – that the result is not a foregone conclusion in favour of the Tories.
Apart from a two-year blip when the Liberals took the then Oswestry seat in 1904 – a sensational by-election result of that time – the Tories have held it more or less forever.
If you believe many of the bookmakers, the odds are in favour of a similar upset in Owen Paterson’s former seat when the votes are counted tonight.
As the Tories bite their nails today, they will be asking – how has it come to this?
The outcome in North Shropshire has an extra bit of zest in that it will inevitably be a referendum on the performance, and conduct, of the embattled Prime Minister in the wake of those Christmas parties and attempts to change the rulebook in the Owen Paterson affair.
A Conservative defeat would be firmly laid at Boris Johnson’s door, which would not matter so much if the blame was coming from opposition parties, but will matter a lot as in this case the finger will be pointed by his own restless MPs and the party hierarchy.
Boris Johnson has no real tribe in Westminster, some high-up Tories have never liked him – and a few said publicly that they would not serve under him – and just about the only card he has had to play is that he is a proven winner, which in politics is a valuable trump.
And he sits on a huge Commons majority, so in that sense North Shropshire is not crucial.
But nevertheless for Boris Johnson this is a moment of jeopardy. For should he be transformed into a proven loser, then from the Tories’ point of view, what else is there to commend him?
Higher prices, bigger bills, and shrinking spending power – three unwelcome “gifts” that rising inflation is giving us this Christmas.
In November it went up to a worse-than-expected 5.1 per cent, the highest for 10 years. That’s the Consumer Prices Index. If you use the Retail Prices Index it soared to its highest for over 30 years, at 7.1 per cent.
With Christmas days away, many families don’t need such statistics to know prices are rising. They feel it every time they buy food, or need fuel for the car.
It adds to the feeling of unease as the country faces up to another wave of Covid.
Whether the government is doing enough is a moot point, but it looks like the new year will be particularly tough for families already counting the financial cost of Christmas.
