Why are so many sellers being over-optimistic?
How can Rightmove, the leading property website which lists around 90 per cent of all homes available, conclude that asking prices rose 3.1 per cent in September - a few weeks after Halifax produced its controversial finding of a 3.6 per cent price plunge in the same month?
How can Rightmove, the leading property website which lists around 90 per cent of all homes available, conclude that asking prices rose 3.1 per cent in September - a few weeks after Halifax produced its controversial finding of a 3.6 per cent price plunge in the same month?
Housing market commentator Henry Pryor thinks he can explain it.
"Every October, people who have a good summer decide to put their house up for sale, and in most years they ask about three per cent more than their neighbours who launched in the summer."
In total, Rightmove listed 105,769 properties for sale for the first time in September.
But the average price of homes listed jumped £7,000 on the August figure.
Pryor says: "Of 105,000 homes newly listed, only 9,000 of these optimists will find a buyer in the next month, leaving roughly 92 per cent wondering what to do next.
"Rightmove's numbers suggest enquiries for a property fall by over 50 per cent after the first week, so getting the price right in the first place is essential to draw the viewers.
"Appearing cool and aloof can feel good but serious sellers know you can't sell without interested buyers.
"With fewer buyers around you must do everything to attract them - most importantly, being realistic about the asking price."
Pryor thinks agents encourage many people to think their homes might be worth more than they actually are.
"Not all are tough enough with their advice and some like get instructions on an overpriced property in the knowledge that eventually the guide price comes down.
"The grim truth is that at current rates, even if you left the property on the market for a year, it has less than a 50 per cent chance of selling.
"Sellers and their agents will eventually accept buyers are in the driving seat.
"Going for an overambitious guide price eventually makes you look foolish - particularly when you reduce it, as 30 per cent of sellers did this summer.
"The internet has created a more transparent market place, as buyers see for themselves what is really happening.
"Values of any asset are based on what they sell for - not what owners ask. Yet agents are told so-and-so is asking 'X' for his house, so mine is worth 'Y'.
"The sad truth is that his isn't so neither is yours."
What is beyond dispute is that many more homes are going on sale: 105,000 in September, ahead of 84,000 in August.
But the market is still much smaller than it was for most of the noughties.
The average number of homes going on sale each day in September was 3,917, against an average of 5,370 each day since 2003.
As a rough calculation, the number of sales achieved each day in September was 400 below the number of homes going on sale.
Pryor thinks prices are already 10 per cent below the peaks of this summer, and predicts they could be another 10 per cent below currents level by spring 2011.
Another market commentator has backed the idea that prices in 2011 will be below today's level.
Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor with financial forecaster Ernst & Young, thinks property values will fall by another five per cent during the coming 12 months.
"Demand from first-time buyers is drying up, because there are only so many who can get the bank of mum and dad to provide a large deposit," he says.
