Bookies give candidate slight edge in race to be mayor

Betting website Gambling.com has Labour's Richard Parker as the narrow favourite, with odds of 6-4 odds-on, giving him a 60 per cent chance of winning. This compares to 11-10 against for incumbent mayor Andy Street, who is hoping to retain the seat for the Conservatives.

However, rival site Oddschecker.com says Mr Street is now the favourite, having started the week behind Mr Parker.

Oddschecker has Mr Street as the 6-4 odds-on favourite, giving him a 60 per cent likelihood of retaining the mayorality. The site, which aggregates the most competitive odds from various bookmakers, has Mr Parker drifting to 15-8, giving him a 34.8 per cent chance of winning.

Mr Street will take some comfort from a campaign which has seen him close the gap on his Labour rival, with the polls narrowing in recent days. A poll earlier this week put the Tory mayor one per cent ahead of Mr Parker, although the margin of error suggested a statistical dead heat. Earlier polls had Mr Street trailing by some distance, losing a considerable chunk of the vote to Reform UK's Elaine Williams.

The betting markets now suggest a collapse in the Reform vote, creating a straight fight between Mr Parker and Mr Street. Gambling.com puts Green candidate Siobhan Harper-Nunes in third place, as a 33-1 outsider. Oddschecker puts Mrs Williams in third place, at odds of 50-1, with Mrs Harper-Nunes at 66-1.

Leon Blackman of Oddschecker said: "This week has witnessed a significant momentum swing, with Andy Street now emerging as the favourite for re-election.

"Initially priced at 6-4 earlier in the week, Street's odds have now shifted to 4-6, relegating rival Richard Parker to second-favourite status among oddsmakers."

A spokesman for Gambling.com said Mr Street has successfully seen off the challenge from Reform with a focus on heavy personal messaging.

"The election is by no means over," he said. "The betting suggests Labour has the narrow edge, but there is no guarantee."

He said Mr Parker suffered from low ratings for personal awareness, with 49 per cent of voters saying they were 'not at all familiar' with the Labour candidate.

"Mr Street arguably has his finger on the West Midlands pulse better than Mr Parker," he said. "He's been in the job since 2017 after all.

"However, his Tory brand and a desire for change across the country means he wi8ll likely remain an outsider in the betting market."