Walsall North General Election profile: Winnick’s stronghold top target for Tories

Continuing our series on the election battles across the Black Country and Staffordshire, today we look at Walsall North.

David Winnick, inset, is hoping to be re-elected aged 83

Walsall North is one of the most deprived constituencies in the West Midlands.

The seat is made up of the towns of Bloxwich and Willenhall, as well as the neighbourhoods of Birchills, Leamore, Blakenall, and Short Heath.

There are 2,225 people on out-of-work benefits – 3.7 per cent of the population – which is higher than the regional and national averages. And nearly a fifth of constituents receive some form of welfare benefit, almost double the national average.

Nearly a fifth of all constituents in Walsall North receive some form of welfare benefit

Average weekly pay is £509.20, which is around the regional average but below the national average of £540.20.

But only 18.1 per cent of people are educated to degree level or above – nearly half the national average.

The seat was created in 1955 and has been dominated by Labour ever since.

The local EU Referendum result and the 2015 Walsall North election outcome

In 1974, its MP John Stonehouse infamously faked his own death and was later jailed for fraud.

After resigning from the party in April 1976, he was invited to join the English National Party, becoming their first and only MP, before being forced to resign as an MP in August 1976. The ensuing by-election was won by Conservative Robin Hodgson but three years later Labour regained the seat with David Winnick.

Mr Winnick, who turns 84 later this month, has held the seat ever since having clocked up 38 years in the constituency.

He survived scares in 2010 and 2015 with majorities of 990 and 1,937.

The seat is one of the Tories’ top targets at the snap General Election and has the second smallest majority in the Black Country and southern Staffordshire.

Who are the 2017 election candidates for Walsall North?

David Winnick is standing again for Labour.
The Tory candidate from 2015, Douglas Hansen-Luke, had been keen to run again but found himself out of favour with party chiefs. Streetly councillor Eddie Hughes was eventually selected to take on Mr Winnick. Mr Hughes is chairman of whg housing association and is assistant chief executive of YMCA in Birmingham.
UKIP’s candidate is once again Liz Hazell. This will be her third General Election in the constituency. She is a councillor for Willenhall North on Walsall Council and two years ago she won an impressive 22 per cent share of the vote.
The Liberal Democrat candidate is Isabelle Parasram. She is head of chambers of a legal practice and regulatory consultancy she founded in London and Newcastle after a 17-year career as a barrister in the public, private and charitable sectors. Two year ago the Liberal Democrats received only 2.3 per cent of the vote.

Who can we expect to win?

Best odds: Con 1/6, Lab 7/2, UKIP 66/1, Lib Dem 200/1

Prediction: Conservative gain

If the Tories can win Walsall North it will be a symbolic victory for so many reasons.

Walsall North is a large working class constituency that has repeatedly voted for Labour and its candidate David Winnick.

For the Tories to capture a seat like this would demonstrate that people in these communities are at least willing to put some faith in the Conservatives. Secondly, if Eddie Hughes does win then it will bring an end to Mr Winnick’s 38-year parliamentary career of representing the seat.

Mr Winnick, 83, has been a dedicated and loyal servant and there are two generations of constituents who have only ever known him as their MP.

The 8,000 votes that UKIP won here in 2015 must be a huge worry for Mr Winnick.

His slender majority of 1,937 risks being pulverised if, as expected, the UKIP vote migrates to the Tories.

However, the Conservatives would be wise not to take that vote for granted. Many of those UKIP voters have traditionally backed Labour.

The Tories have come close in the past two elections but there is a feeling that this election has come at the right time for them to take advantage of the anti-EU feeling. Interestingly it would also appear many potential Tory voters are not fazed by the so-called dementia tax.

Average house prices are around £105,000 in most of the constituency, meaning that the bulk of homeowners’ assets would be protected under Mrs May’s proposed reforms.

Despite a dreadful national campaign, the odds look stacked in the Tories’ favour this time around.