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Dudley North General Election profile: Will seat remain as a Labour fortress?

Dudley North has been a Labour seat since it was formed in 1997.

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It is made up of the northern part of the borough of Dudley, covering the town centre, Priory, Upper and Lower Gornal, Sedgley and Woodsetton, as well as the council wards of St James's and St Thomas's.

The borough was previously split into East and West constituencies.

The first time the seat was contested Ross Cranston won it for Labour with a majority of 9,457 when Tony Blair swept to power, but Dudley North has been a more closely run affair since then.

Dudley-born Ian Austin has been the constituency MP since 2005.

On that occasion he held a majority of 5,432, but in the 2010 election he squeezed home by just 649 votes as counting went onto into the afternoon following issues with the count.

The local EU referendum results and the 2015 Dudley North outcome

Dudley North is an area of high unemployment, with official figures from December 2016 showing 11.1 per cent of the population as being out of work.

The number of people claiming out-of-work benefits is 3.8 per cent - almost double the national average.

The borough voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU in last year's referendum, with 67.6 per cent of people backing Brexit.

Who are the 2017 election candidates for Dudley North

  • labour's Ian Austin currently holds a majority of 4,181. Mr Austin is considered to be to the right of the Labour Party and has been an outspoken critic of Jeremy Corbyn. He has previously held a number of shadow cabinet positions and sat on the Education Committee prior to last month's dissolution of Parliament. This year he is up against his two main rivals from the 2015 General Election.

  • Dudley councillor Les Jones has been selected for the Conservatives, who have finished second every time the seat has been contested. Mr Jones polled 30.8 per cent of the vote at the last election. He has become something of a go-to man for the Tories in the West Midlands, having also contested the West Midlands Police and Crime Commissioner election on two occasions.

  • Another Dudley councillor, Bill Etheridge, returns to fight the seat for UKIP. He is his party's defence spokesman and has seen his profile rise over the past year after he made two ultimately unsuccessful bids to lead UKIP. Mr Etheridge is a West Midlands MEP and played a major role on a local level in pushing for Brexit.

  • The Lib Dems will be represented by Ben France, who is the party's campaign chair in Dudley.

  • The Green Party candidate is NHS worker Andrew Nixon.

Who can we expect to win?

Best Odds: Conservative 1/2, Labour 9/4, UKIP 66/1, Lib Dems 250/1, Green 300/1.

Prediction: A re-run of 2010...Labour hold by the slenderest of margins.

Dudley North has seen some close battles over the years, not least in 2010 when Ian Austin edged home with a majority of just 649.

This year’s race is likely to be just as tight, and there are question marks over whether Labour will be able to hold the seat.

There is a strong argument that Dudley North is one of the most fascinating contests in the country.

The last General Election saw a fierce battle between Mr Austin, UKIP’s Bill Etheridge and Tory Les Jones – and the three old foes have renewed rivalries this year.

The impact of Dudley’s huge support for Brexit will be interesting.

Mr Austin backed Remain during the EU referendum campaign, although he was one of the first Labour MPs in the country to highlight people’s concerns over immigration.

There is no doubting Mr Etheridge’s Brexit credentials, but as a result of UKIP’s demise nationally he may struggle to match the 9,113 votes he received in 2015.

Add on the fact that that the Conservatives won more than half of the Dudley vote in the recent mayoral election, and Mr Jones could be forgiven for being quietly confident of winning the seat.

However, the UKIP vote may not collapse here to the extent that it does in other areas, leaving Mr Austin with just enough in hand to retain his seat.