Walsall South General Election profile: Target Tory seat too close to call
A working class constituency with a large Muslim population, Walsall South has been solidly Labour since 1974.
It is at the heart of an area traditionally focused on manufacturing and includes the town of Darlaston, bisected by the M6.
Also covered by the seat are the local authority wards of Bentley, Paddock, Palfrey, Pheasey Park Farm, Pleck and St Matthew’s.
The constituency has high levels of deprivation with the unemployment rate and number of people claiming out-of-work benefits higher than the national and regional average.
Weekly earnings are £488 compared to the national average of £540.
And only 24 per cent of residents have high levels of qualifications – more than a third less than the national average of 38.2 per cent. The bulk of Walsall’s Muslim population lives in the constituency - some 15,000 residents.
Until 2010 Walsall South had been served by only two MPs since 1955 – Conservative Henry d’Avigdor-Goldsmid and Labour’s Bruce George. Incumbent Valerie Vaz won the seat on Mr George’s retirement that year.
In the Blair era, Labour enjoyed large majorities but the rest of the time only a few thousand votes have separated Labour and the Conservatives.
Ms Vaz, who was born in Yemen to a Goan family and grew up in London, currently has a majority of 6,007.
On paper it looks like a healthy number but the Tories have designated it a target seat at the snap General Election because UKIP polled 6,540 votes two years ago.
Ms Vaz is a solicitor by profession and is the sister of Keith Vaz, who has been a prominent Labour MP since 1987. She was shadow leader of the House of Commons in Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow front bench.
Who are the 2017 election candidates for Walsall South?
Valerie Vaz is hoping to keep the seat she's held since 2010.
The Conservative candidate is James Bird.He is a 32-year-old director at a communication agency in Birmingham. He is also a former Birmingham City Councillor.
UKIP’s candidate is Derek Bennett who won 15.6 per cent of the vote two years ago. He has campaigned in every election since 1997 and suffered a stroke in November but is fit enough to fight in Walsall South for the fifth General Election in a row.
The Lib Dem candidate is science teacher Anna Purvis from New Zealand who works for the party in Hertfordshire.
The Green Party is not running a candidate in what is being seen as a ‘progressive alliance’ with the Lib Dems.
Who can we expect to win?
Best odds: Con: 5/6, Lab: 6/5, UKIP 1/50, Lib Dem: 200/1
Prediction: Labour hold with very small majority
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in this seat.
Prices at the bookmakers have fluctuated a bit with the Tories out in front at the start of the campaign but being reined in by Labour in the last week.
The large UKIP vote two years ago makes it a marginal seat with the Conservatives hoping to capture it for the first time since the 1960s.
If we presume that most of the UKIP vote goes to the Tories then it will come down to the swing from Labour to the Conservatives.
After the West Midlands Mayoral election, which saw Tory candidate Andy Street gain more votes in Walsall, James Bird could be on the cusp of victory here.
The Muslim vote will be very important. Traditionally Muslims have supported Labour but on the ground there is a sense that many are willing to back the Conservatives for the first time.
Mayor Street certainly seemed to make major gains in the Islamic community here earlier this month.
A lot of the Muslim population are entrepreneurs or run their own businesses and are attracted to the Conservatives’ low business tax rates.
This is arguably the most difficult seat in the Black Country to call – But Jeremy Corbyn’s speech yesterday may have struck a chord with voters.
Valerie Vaz will need to persuade the party’s core support to come out in force. The risk is that they stay at home.
