South Staffordshire General Election profile: Tory Chief Whip set to stay as MP

Created in 1983 after the old Staffordshire South West constituency was renamed, South Staffordshire has been a Tory hotbed since its inception.

It contains around two-thirds of the South Staffordshire local government district and features Brewood, Cheslyn Hay, Codsall, Featherstone, Great Wyrley, Kinver, Perton and Wombourne.

Government Chief Whip Gavin Williamson has held the seat since 2010.

On that occasion he won with a majority of 16,590, which he extended to 20,371 in 2015.

Previously the seat was held by Patrick Cormack – now Lord Cormack, meaning that only two people have ever reigned in the constituency.

Gaining any sort of foothold in South Staffordshire has been beyond any of the opposition parties, with Labour usually filling second place at the ballot box.

The closest any non-Tory has got to winning the seat was in the 2001 General Election, when Labour’s Paul Kalinauckas polled 32.4 per cent of the vote.

He was beaten by a comfortable 6,881 votes.

Even when Labour was at its peak when Tony Blair swept to power in 1997, South Staffordshire remained resolutely blue.

Arguably the most notable election in the constituency came in 2005.

A few days before voters were due to head to the polls the Lib Dem candidate Josephine Harrison died of an undisclosed illness, forcing the abandonment of the scheduled May 5 vote.

Instead the election was eventually held on June 23 and saw the Conservative Party increase its majority.

The constituency is relatively affluent and has 76,355 eligible voters. The 2015 turnout of 58.9 per cent was lower than the UK average of 66.1 per cent.

Voters in South Staffordshire overwhelmingly backed Brexit in the EU referendum campaign, with 64.8 per cent voting to leave the bloc.

• Mr Williamson is seeking to hold onto the seat for the Conservatives. He has seen a meteoric rise through the Tory ranks since he was first elected. The former potter became Parliamentary Private Secretary to David Cameron in 2015 and after overseeing Theresa May’s successful Conservative leadership bid, he was handed the role of Chief Whip.

• Labour has selected a young candidate in Adam Freeman, who received 19 per cent of the vote when he came second to the Tory candidate in the recent South Staffordshire County Council election for Perton. He is listed as the secretary and campaign coordinator for Labour in the area.

• Claire McIlvenna, from Wombourne, is representing the Green Party at the election. She was also the party’s candidate in 2015 where she polled 2.6 per cent of the vote.

• UKIP is not fielding a candidate in this election.

• The Lib Dem candidate is Hilary Myers, who came third in Calder Valley in 2010 and fourth in Redditch in 2015.

Best Odds: Cons 1/200, Labour 33/1, Lib Dem 200/1, Green 500/1

Prediction: Conservative hold with an increased majority

There have been some almighty upsets in the political world over the last 12 months.

The Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election both confounded pollsters and left the majority of pundits looking rather silly.

But we can predict with some degree of certainty that another shock won’t be added to the list when voters head to the polls in South Staffordshire on June 8.

This is as safe a Conservative seat as it is possible to imagine.

Government Chief Whip Gavin Williamson will undoubtedly say he is taking nothing for granted in the General Election, but anything other than a Conservative win with a substantial majority appears to be out of the question.

His odds of 1/200 suggest a landslide is highly likely. Despite his senior role in Government, Mr Williamson has maintained a reputation as a popular constituency MP.

Over recent months he has backed his community in the fight against the DX Freight Hub in Essington and the West Midlands Freight Rail Hub in Gailey.

In 2015 Labour polled 18.4 per cent of the vote, and the party’s candidate this time around Adam Freeman will have his work cut out getting close to that figure, bearing in mind Labour’s struggles on a national level.

If South Staffordshire turns from blue to red next month, we would be approaching the levels of disbelief that saw Leicester City win the Premier League.

This will be a walk in the park for Mr Williamson.