How UKIP could turn the election outcome

Analysis by the Express & Star shows how the Eurosceptics could split the vote and distort the result next May in the Black Country and Staffordshire next May.

Across the area UKIP typically won between five and eight per cent of the vote in 2010, coming fourth or even fifth behind the BNP in some areas such as Wolverhampton North East or Walsall North. But there were even some areas like Stafford, West Bromwich East and Stourbridge where UKIP failed to win even five per cent of the vote, meaning they lost their deposit.

Yet recent local election results suggest the mainstream parties will have another front on which to fight as UKIP's fortunes have changed.

One of the seats most vulnerable to change or to split votes is Dudley North, which is currently held by Labour's Ian Austin with a majority of just 649.

In 2010 UKIP came a distant fourth, winning just 3,267 compared to Labour's 14,923.

But the party has recently won seats on Dudley Council and one of its new MEPs, Bill Etheridge, is standing against Mr Austin.

Mr Etheridge is a former Tory who left the Conservative party after and his wife Star posed with golly dolls in a campaign against political correctness.

But he denied that the party was 'more Tory than the Tories', despite recent defections by Conservative MPs in Clacton and Rochester and Strood.

"The Conservatives are out of the running around here," he said. "In Dudley North it's a two-horse race between me and Ian Austin. We're not a party that only cares about Europe and immigration. But the old parties did not wake up to the need to discuss those matters early enough."

Mr Austin said: "I'd never take a single vote for granted and neither should UKIP, but their deputy leader says the NHS should be privatised, they've said they want to charge people to go to the doctor, take away people's sickness and working rights and they want to cut taxes for millionaires just like the Tories. The truth is UKIP are more Tory than the Tories and they're not on the side of people in Dudley."

David Cameron knows that if he is to have a majority and not require another coalition pact with the Liberal Democrats, he has to win seats he failed to secure in 2010.

Walsall North is another currently Labour-held seat the Tories have been targetting.

Yet UKIP has made gains there too. The party won three seats on Walsall Council in May and two of them, Short Heath and Willenhall North, were in this constituency.

In 2010 UKIP barely registered. They came fifth with 1,737 votes, behind even the far right BNP.

Labour's David Winnick is defending a 990 majority.

He has fought and won every election since 1979. He said: "The two wards in my constituency where UKIP won have tended previously to be won by Liberal Democrats.

"If you look at the last test of the electorate's opinion in July, the Birchills Leamore by-election, Labour won.

"I take nothing for granted. But I am reasonably confident that we will hold this seat and we will fight very hard to do so."

Conservative candidate Douglas Hansen Luke said: "UKIP voters need to be taken seriously.

"I believe the election will be a two-horse race between me and David Winnick because in the end it will come down to which party people want to run the country.

"The only way UKIP can deliver a referendum is if it wins 326 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons. That won't happen.

"People think UKIP has been giving a voice to their concerns. But we are the ones who can do something about those concerns."

UKIP has come under intense scrutiny recently. It was originally branded a party of 'fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists' by David Cameron in 2006 but has seen its support growing, even winning in the European elections in May on the back of a wave of growing Euroscepticism, concerns about immigration and dissatisfaction with the main parties.

Candidates for council seats found themselves facing awkward questions about their views.

They included David Wycherley, who was seeking a seat in Walsall, who asked on Facebook: "Can somebody explain please...Mo Farah, an African from Somalia,who trains in America, has won a gold medal for Britain!"

Mr Etheridge was also recently heavily criticised for referring to Adolf Hitler's speaking style in a seminar for UKIP's youth wing.

The party has also been accused of being inconsistent. Leader Nigel Farage has denounced its entire 2010 election manifesto as 'drivel'.

Then in September this year he ditched UKIP's proposal for a tax on luxury goods such as shoes and handbags just 48 hours after it was floated at the party's autumn conference.

It had been seen as a way of wooing Labour voters but Mr Farage said it was just a 'discussion point' and was 'dead' as long as he was leader.

Yet the opinion polls show the party's support has been growing.

Last weekend polling organisation YouGov put UKIP on 16 per cent compared to seven per cent for the Liberal Democrats and five per cent for the Greens. Labour were on 35 per cent and the Tories on 32 per cent.

May's local election results certainly suggest UKIP will have an impact on the other parties' share of the vote in the General Election, even if they do not win seats.

In Wolverhampton, UKIP took a seat from the Lib Dems in Spring Vale - with former Lib Dem Malcolm Gwinnett having switched sides after being dropped as a candidate by his old colleagues.

Yet the party ended up taking second place in many wards, beating the Tories into third place in areas like Bilston and even in Bushbury North, where the Conservatives had been defending the seat.

In the latter, had the Tory vote and the UKIP vote been added together, it would have been more than enough to stop Labour from winning the seat.

It was a similar picture in Conservative strongholds like Tettenhall Wightwick. While the Tories still won comfortably, UKIP came second.

It was not the case across the whole of the marginal Wolverhampton South West, of course. There are strongholds for Labour and the Tories where even against the backdrop of the European elections it was still a race between red and blue, without any yellow and purple.

Paul Uppal, the Tory MP for Wolverhampton South West, is defending a slender 691 majority.

He said: "What people who are voting UKIP have to ask themselves is, do they want Ed Miliband in Number 10? Because that is what voting for UKIP instead of the Conservatives will mean."

But is the UKIP 'earthquake' over in the West Midlands?

Over the summer the party came third in the West Midlands Police and Crime Commissioner by-election, even in Sedgley where the party has been polling strongly and where it has a local office. However, this was still ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

Cannock Chase has seen UKIP become the main opposition to Labour on the council since the May elections.

The district saw the Tories gain their largest swing from Labour in 2010 but ever since the results have begun to swung back.

Amanda Milling will try to hold the seat for the Tories as current MP Aidan Burley is standing down.

She said: "The danger with voting UKIP is Labour will win by default.

"I think UKIP voters will care about that when they see the choice for Prime Minister is David Cameron or Ed Miliband."