Why sparks are flying over Labour's 'circuit breaker' plan

It could of course do both or neither of those things, which partly explains the wave of confusion that surrounds the row over the latest idea to combat the country's surging virus rate.

The plan, unveiled by Sir Keir Starmer on Tuesday, would see workplaces, pubs, restaurants and all but essential shops closed, with people pretty much confined to their homes and unable to mix with others.

It would be like March's national lockdown, only without the school closures.

The Labour leader said the circuit breaker could potentially take place over the half-term school holidays to minimise disruption, and would last for two to three weeks.

The move, he says, is based on scientific advice and would see infection rates plummet.

The Welsh government is already planning a similar type of national lockdown and is taking a hard line on measures – a move that yesterday brought demonstrations to its capital as politicians debated the issue.

Some – but not all – scientists have backed the plan, arguing that it would be far more effective in curbing the spread of the virus than the Government's new three-tier lockdown system, which came into effect yesterday.

Naturally the PM has dismissed Sir Keir's idea, describing it in the Commons as "miserable" and insisting that his own scheme would balance the economic and wider interests of the country with scientific advice.

Make no mistake, the issue has now become a Tory vs Labour battle.

For the red side of the House, Pat McFadden MP, who says another national lockdown represents the only chance the country has of getting control of the virus.

"We know this was recommended by SAGE, the Government’s advisors, a few weeks ago but Ministers rejected the idea," said Mr McFadden, the Shadow City Minister and Wolverhampton South East MP.

"Since then infection rates have been rising, we have had the highest daily death toll for four months and a new paper published today from Government advisors says a two week national circuit breaker could save thousands of lives.

"It is also important, as Keir Starmer said, that any such move is accompanied by proper economic support and that the time saved is used to get on top of the misfiring test and trace system.

"If the virus rips out of control not only do more people die but the economy suffers more too and the long term, cost will be greater.

"We are following scientific advice to help the country get on top of this second wave."

From the seats opposite, here's Dudley South MP Mike Wood, who claims the circuit breaker is nothing more than a political manoeuvre by Labour.

"We have seen Labour opposing restriction in very high infection areas, but they are now calling for restrictions to go much further, including in areas where infection rates are far lower," said Mr Wood, who is PPS to Home Secretary Priti Patel.

"The position they are taking makes absolutely no logical sense. It would be devastating for jobs and the economy, and devastating for people socially.

"It is also very hard to see how a two week shutdown would be effective. What do you do at the end of the two weeks if the figures are still growing, which they almost certainly would be?

"If you look back to the national lockdown in March, the number of cases trebled in the two weeks after it started.

"We have to balance the very real risk to people's health, with the impact on jobs and on people's mental health.

"I don't think the Labour Party has really thought this through before jumping on what they clearly see as a political opportunity."

It should be noted that many Labour MPs who are now backing the circuit breaker have spent weeks railing against stricter lockdown measures.

Meanwhile Conservative MPs could well find themselves speaking in favour of a full scale lockdown – albeit through gritted teeth – if the Prime Minister announces one in the coming weeks.

And there is a very real possibility that Mr Johnson will do precisely that.

For the time being, the PM has been swayed by the arguments put forward by his Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, who is desperate to avoid another full scale lockdown and the attack on the Treasury's dwindling coffers that comes with it.

But if the tiered system fails to bring about a drop in infection rates, Mr Johnson will be left with little choice but to move to Plan B and tighten restrictions further.

In Tory circles half term has already been mooted as a possible time when a national lockdown could do least damage to Britain's economy.

On the face of it, the call for a circuit breaker represents an astute political move by Sir Keir.

He has put his party directly at odds with the Government's position and on the side of the scientists, and if the PM does eventually blink, Sir Keir can claim the Government has bowed down to pressure and followed a Labour plan.

It is not that straight forward, however.

Throughout the pandemic the public has been bombarded with advice from scientists on how best to control the virus.

Much of it has been conflicting, such as the ever-changing guidance on wearing a mask.

And the Government's scientists at times seem to go against their own evidence when it suits them.

It was they who recommended the curfew on bars and restaurants – a move apparently based on US research – despite data clearly showing that only a tiny proportion of infections originate in hospitality settings.

The only thing they have got right was correctly predicting there would be a second wave.

Bill Etheridge, UKIP’s economic spokesman, has called for an investigation into the SAGE committee. He said: “Where is the explanation for what they are doing to the country?

"We’re not seeing it. About the only thing they are doing consistently is changing their minds.”

Despite the misery of the last national lockdown, there is some public support for a new one.

More than half of people surveyed by YouGov felt the Government should have introduced such measures in September. Less than a third of those polled disagreed.