The Black Country could lose 12,000 manufacturing jobs by 2032, new report warns

Already this year a number of manufacturers in the region have made redundancies as they have been hit by issues including rising energy prices and soaring inflation.

The report Net Zero to Level Up, from cross-party think tank Demos, looks at how to secure a ‘just transition’ to net zero in the region.

Demos is urging West Midlands Mayor Andy Street to use the new powers in the recently-announced ‘trailblazer devolution deal’ to defend existing jobs in manufacturing and maximise new employment opportunities connected to net zero.

According to Demos’s research, a significant number of small businesses in manufacturing will face enormous challenges as a result of the transition to net zero. Manufacturing is a traditional strength of the Black Country’s local economy, where 14 per cent of jobs are in the industry, compared to a national average of eight per cent.

The report, based on more than 40 local and regional stakeholder interviews and meetings, reveals that the transition could leave 12,000 – 20 per cent of the Black Country's manufacturing workforce – long-term unemployed by 2032.

It predicts that if the new powers are used correctly, up to 20,000 net zero jobs could be created by 2032 in the Black Country, opening up new employment opportunities for residents, and that the 12,000 manufacturing jobs could be saved.

The think tank has sought to define a framework for achieving a just transition – one that increases opportunity while reducing deprivation – that can be replicated across the UK. The Black Country is a key geographical area for the Government’s levelling up agenda, with all four local authorities identified as ‘priority 1’ for the Levelling Up Fund.

Net Zero to Level Up highlights the high number of businesses at risk, including energy-intensive companies and those selling into threatened supply chains such as internal combustion engine markets. It also points to an existing business support system which fails to reach many small companies as another leading cause for concern.

It also looks at age demographics, outlining that future investors are unlikely to employ a large number of older workers, even if they replace some of the jobs lost. With two-thirds of the manufacturing workforce in the Black Country already over 40, they may struggle to find jobs of comparable quality if made redundant, the report warns.

Andrew Phillips, senior researcher at Demos and co-author of Net Zero to Level Up, said: “Many local businesses want to respond to net zero, but are simply unable or unsure how to do so. Based on our extensive conversations with local stakeholders, the trailblazer devolution deal could be a game-changer for the Black Country and wider West Midlands, enabling a tailored approach which can support small businesses much more effectively.

“The challenge now is for the West Midlands Combined Authority and the Black Country local authorities to exercise their new powers effectively to ensure a just transition to net zero. As well as generating new jobs, and saving existing jobs, the region can provide the rest of the country with a blueprint for using the transition to support regional economic growth.”

Darren Manton, the co-founder of Wolverhampton-based Electric Car Chargers UK, which offers EV charging systems solutions to local councils, business fleets and the automotive industry, said: "The plans set out by Demos recognise one of the biggest challenges facing the transition to net zero: getting away from siloed policy making and towards a more holistic approach.

“Recruiting young people from disadvantaged backgrounds and providing them with the right skills is essential in this effort. If we want increased productivity and greater employment opportunities in the shift towards lowering carbon emissions, we need collaboration between both the private and public sectors.

“If we can build the blueprint at a local and regional level, there’s no reason why that can’t be replicated on a national scale.”

Among the recent manufacturing jobs losses are 45 this week at Aartee Bright Bar's hot rolled steel plant in Peartree Lane, Dudley, which is closing down, and up to 30 redundancies at chemicals firm Robinson Brothers in West Bromwich which has been hard hit by the rising energy costs.