West Midlands to be key election battleground

For political observers and experts up and down the land - as well as nervous politicians - the race is still too tight to call.

Labour are ahead in the opinion polls and look to be gaining momentum, but the party's and Ed Miliband's popularity is nowhere near where it would want it to be after four rather tumultuous years of a coalition government.

And the threat of Nigel Farage and UKIP deeply muddies the waters for both them and the Conservatives - as does the curve ball of three Tory MPs standing down in a matter of days.

Dudley South MP Chris Kelly's surprising announcement that he is quitting the Commons after just a single term has shocked and disappointment politicians and voters.

It follows the blow last week that Clacton MP Douglas Carswell was leaving immediately and defecting to UKIP, triggering a by-election.

Yet another Tory MP, North Oxfordshire's Sir Tony Baldry, said he was leaving too after 30 years and the age of 64.

Nationally, then, it's not been the best of weeks for David Cameron.

And it appears the Black Country and Staffordshire will be giving the Prime Minister a bit of a headache, with Mr Kelly standing down adding to an intriguing political soap opera.

The region is fast becoming a fascinating sub-plot to the national picture, with battles lines being drawn in a surprisingly high number of marginal seats.

Mr Kelly's Dudley South constituency was one of the key marginal battlegrounds the Tories took from Labour in 2010.

He won by a majority of just 3,856 over Labour, a swing of 9.5 per cent.

Natasha Millward would have been his chief opposition next year and the Labour candidate said the Tory was 'running scared'.

His reasons for stepping down remain unclear but they are largely irrelevant - the seat is very much up for grabs and the Tories have a job on their hands to select a candidate who can hit the ground running.

Elsewhere in the West Midlands and Staffordshire several tight Tory marginals are looking vulnerable.

The Prime Minister's party must not only hold on to these battleground seats many of which were taken from Labour in 2010, but win even more if they are to have a hope of forming the majority government they so crave.

Cannock Chase - where another Tory MP, Aidan Burley, is stepping down - Halesowen and Rowley Regis, Stourbridge, Wolverhampton South West and Stafford were all won by small majorities four years ago and will all be targeted by Labour this time around.

Six seats that are very much up for grabs, especially when you analyse the numbers in 2010.

Mr Burley's majority was 3,195, while James Morris took Halesowen and Rowley Regis from Labour by 2,023 votes.

In Stourbridge Margot James' again turned a red seat into a blue one but by a relatively small majority of 5,164, and Stafford too swapped a Labour MP for a Conservative one with Jeremy Lefroy winning by 5,460.

The tightest of all was in Wolverhampton South West where Labour's Rob Marris lost to the Conservative's Paul Uppal in 2010 by a majority of just 691 votes.

He and Mr Uppal will go head to head for the seat again in 2015 and Mr Marris said Labour were feeling confident with just a few months left in the race.

But the former MP warned that the picture across the West Midlands looked very uncertain.

"We're building momentum, yes," he said.

"I knock on a lot of doors and it's quite clear an awful lot of voters are undecided.

"Everything is very uncertain - nobody knows what will happen.

"We've got a lot of people helping us and I'm optimistic we've got plenty of people who will vote for us.

"It sounds obvious but we're targeting seats where we think we're most likely to win.

"It's no surprise that Labour will put more effort into Wolverhampton South West than they will into South Staffordshire (which the Conservatives won by a 16,590 majority).

"Chris Kelly's seat was winnable for Labour before the announcement and that increases the chances of Labour winning that seat."

Nearby Wyre Forest in Worcestershire is another tight Tory seat, with Mark Garnier pipping Dr Richard Taylor to the post by 2,643.

There are tight Labour seats too, of course, particularly in Dudley North where Ian Austin squeezed past the Tories on a majority of just 649.

But all this talk of Tory v Labour neglects the UKIP factor, which has thrown a big spanner into the proverbial general election works.

If Mr Farage enjoys the sort of popularity seen at this year's European elections then all bets are off.

UKIP enjoyed modest success in some West Midlands and Staffordshire seats in 2010 but those numbers can surely expect to increase next year, leaving the Conservatives and Labour to sweat on whose votes will be taken.

This is true in Dudley in particular. They polled 8.2 per cent in Dudley South and 8.5 per cent in Dudley North, putting the Liberal Democrats within striking distance years before the boom in Farage's profile and popularly.

Elsewhere UKIP won 7.7 per cent of the vote in Wolverhampton South East, 5.5 per cent in South Staffordshire and 6.4 per cent in Halesowen and Rowley Regis.

Just a five per cent boom in votes could have huge ramifications for the voter split.

Conversely the two biggest parties may pick up votes from disengaged Liberal Democrat supporters who have seen the party's opinion poll numbers plummet since Nick Clegg joined forces with Mr Cameron.

It all adds up to a captivating race over the coming months, one which will be watched as closely in Whitehall as it will in Wolverhampton.

Mr Marris said in his constituency he hoped that voters took focused on the two traditional parties.

"The historical trend in Wolverhampton South West is that it's a two-horse race," he said.

"It's a factor I hope voters take into consideration, whether it's a Labour government or a Conservative government.

"We're in a four major party system and there's no politician who's been through that before.

"It makes the whole playing field far more uncertain.

"It's everything to play for."