Opinion polls point to hung parliament

The final opinion polls of the 2010 General Election campaign all pointed to a hung Parliament today.

A string of six surveys for national newspapers were unanimous in putting David Cameron's Conservatives in the lead by a comfortable margin.

But they were also united in suggesting that Mr Cameron will not achieve the 326 MPs he needs to become Prime Minister at the head of a majority Conservative administration.

The Tories scored between 35% and 37% in today's polls, indicating that they can hope for 268-294 MPs in the new House of Commons which convenes on May 18.

Labour won the support of between 27% and 29% in the surveys, equating to 248-274 MPs on a uniform swing across the country. And Liberal Democrat ratings varied between 26% and 28%, which could deliver Nick Clegg 77-82 MPs and give him the balance of power in a hung Parliament.

The Opinium survey of 1,383 people for the Daily Express on May 4 and 5 put Tories on 35% (up two points on a similar poll published in the paper on Monday), with Labour down one point on 27% and Liberal Democrats down one on 26%. On a uniform swing it would give Conservatives 283 MPs, Labour 258 and Lib Dems 80.

A Populus poll for The Times put Tories on 37% (up one point on a similar poll last week), Labour on 28% (up one) and Liberal Democrats on 27% (down one). Some 2,505 adults were questioned on May 4 and 5.

The Populus results would deliver 294 Conservative MPs on an even swing across the country, with 249 Labour and 79 Lib Dems.

Only one of today's polls suggested Labour could be the largest party in a hung Parliament.

The Harris poll of 3,406 voters on May 4 and 5 for the Daily Mail indicated a late surge to Gordon Brown's party, putting it up three points since yesterday on 29%, with Conservatives down one on 35% and the Lib Dems down one on 27%.

Because of the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system, these figures could translate into 274 seats for Labour, 268 for the Tories and 79 for the Lib Dems.

Meanwhile, the largest of the eve-of-election polls, by YouGov for The Sun, found the Conservatives enjoying 35% support (unchanged since yesterday), with Labour on 28% (down two points) and Liberal Democrats on 28% (up four).

The daily tracker poll, involving 6,483 people on May 4 and 5, indicated a House of Commons containing 277 Tories, 262 Labour MPs and 82 Lib Dems.

An ICM poll for The Guardian put the Conservatives on 36% (up three points), Labour on 28% (unchanged) and the Liberal Democrats on 26% (down two).

The poll, involving 2,022 adults on May 3 and 4, would translate into 286 Conservatives, 258 Labour MPs and 77 Lib Dems.

And a ComRes survey for ITV News and The Independent, based on 1,025 interviews on May 4 and 5, found 37% support for the Tories (unchanged), with Labour on 28% (down one) and Liberal Democrats on 28% (up two).

On a uniform swing, this would result in 294 Tory MPs, 248 Labour and 81 Liberal Democrats.