Tories look a good bet in Black Country

Parts of the West Midlands and Staffordshire could break with decades of support for Labour and turn to the Conservatives, according to bookmakers.

The Express & Star has asked bookmaker Ladbrokes for its odds on who will win the region's parliamentary seats in the general election.

If the predictions are correct then voters in one of the hardest hit areas in the recession, the Black Country, are poised to give Gordon Brown the most crushing blow ever felt by Labour.

All of Dudley's four Labour seats look set to be lost to the Conservatives as the sitting MPs defend thin majorities.

Ian Pearson, who represents Dudley South and has been in the Commons since 1994, looks set to lose his 4,244 majority to Wolverhampton-born Chris Kelly.

The odds also favour the Tories' candidate Graeme Brown in Dudley North, the constituency of West Midland regional minister Ian Austin.

Halesowen and Rowley Regis MP Sylvia Heal looks set to be voted out in her 20th year representing the area.

The deputy speaker of the House of Commons faces a serious challenge from James Morris.

On a wafer thin majority of 407 votes is Stourbridge MP Lynda Waltho. Ladbrokes give her a 6/1 chance of retaining her seat against Margot James from the Tories.

Elsewhere in the region Walsall and Sandwell look to be remain unchanged. David Winnick for Walsall North and Bruce George for Walsall South appear unaffected

However Mr Winnick was recently warned that 64.9 per cent of his voters fell into the groups most disaffected with Labour, according to credit check experts Experian. Sandwell's three Labour MPs, Tom Watson, John Spellar and Adrian Bailey, also appear to be in some of the safest seats Labour could hope for.

Their survival is helped by the fact that Sandwell Labour Party still has a massive majority control of the council - and has won a number of recent by-elections - despite Labour being knocked into opposition everywhere else in the Black Country.

Wolverhampton's Rob Marris is also under threat.

Defending a 2,879 majority in Wolverhampton South West, with some of the city's most affluent voters, the former solicitor may have to consider dusting off his legal journals.

He has always made sure to devote his time 100 per cent to Parliamentary duties and has previously said he does not believe in doing another job when the taxpayers are giving him more than £60,000 a year to represent them. Despite Labour being the favourite in Wolverhampton North East, the party's candidate, Emma Reynolds, will have a fight on her hands to establish herself in her own right as a successor to veteran Ken Purchase, who is standing down.

There are unlikely to be devastating losses for Labour in Birmingham, where a partnership of Tories and Lib Dems have been in power since 2004, and where vehicle manufacturers like MG Rover and LDV have suffered.

Only Edgbaston's Gisela Stuart, defending a thin 2,349 vote majority, is at real risk.

The currently independent seat Birmingham Ladywood, where former Labour MP Clare Short is standing down, is one of Labour's few saving graces. The party is expected to win it back.

However Wyre Forest, where independent Richard Taylor has served two terms despite the odds against him last time, is expected to fall to the Tories. Ladbrokes said any Labour MP with a majority less then 12 per cent is going to have a serious fight on their hands to stay in office.

Matthew Shaddick from Ladbrokes said: "Looking at all of these seats as a whole, you can see why the West Midlands is going to be such an important region in the election.

"Outside of the seats in Birmingham, where the Lib Dems are a factor, it's a huge Labour/Tory battleground.

"Especially interesting from a betting point of view are the big cluster of seats where Labour had a majority of between 20 and 22 per cent in 2005.

"If the Conservatives can win contests like the two Walsall seats, Cannock Chase and Birmingham Selly Oak, I think we can be fairly sure that David Cameron is going to get a very decent majority.

"Ladbrokes have already seen some good support for the Tories in Cannock Chase, which looks like it could be desperately close if the betting is any guide. Birmingham Northfield is another seat where there has been plenty of money for a Conservative gain.

"There's a fair bit of evidence that the swings in the West Midlands could be higher than average, and so it is just about possible that safe-looking seats like Birmingham Erdington and Wolverhampton North East could be surprise Tory pick-ups.

"If the West Bromwich seats are even close, then a Labour meltdown is under way.

"The betting would seem to indicate that all of the Labour-held seats with majorities of less than 12 per cent here look like Conservative gains unless Labour mount a recovery from the current polling position.

"That means seats with majorities of less than 5,000, like the two Dudley constituencies, have Labour as outsiders to retain them.

"In common with the rest of the country, the seats already held by the Conservatives do not look like very competitive."