Big rise in swine flu forecast by expert

Swine flu is set to return with a vengeance in the West Midlands before Christmas, a health expert has warned.

Vivien Hall says that hospitals must act now to be ready for a sharp rise in cases. Mrs Hall, chief operating officer at New Cross Hospital, Wolverhampton, said that a second surge was on its way, and it was not "business as usual".

She said: "Let's not kid ourselves that swine flu has gone, that the impact on hospital services has been exaggerated, or that it's an issue for specialists and not the board or chief executive."

Previously there were three peaks – summer, schools restarting and Christmas. "The worst scenario would see the intensive treatment unit beds increase from 30 to 109, with an extra 437 admissions," said Mrs Hall.

The Royal Wolverhampton Hospitals NHS Trust, which runs New Cross, plans to provide extra beds and equipment and vaccinate frontline staff.

Expected absence in staff nursing due to the condition is 32 per cent, and 29 per cent for doctors. A total of 1,000 staff are being trained to deal with the virus.

Isolation wards are ready, and staff will get regular updates on virus spread. Training is being offered to non-clinical staff, who may have to "work beyond their level and competence" to help treat patients under supervision, said Mrs Hall.

"Last year we were great, but we have to be magnificent this year," she said. "It's going to plan but there is no doubt there is going to be an unpredicatable surge."

The two-dose vaccination was described as the "key intervention" by Dr Donald Dobie, the hospital's clinical lead for pandemic flu. "It's the most effective solution to staff anxieties," he said.